Brazil, United States and China: Who Will Shape the Future of Latin America?

The Power That Was Born in Brazil: The São Paulo Forum

To understand what is truly at stake in Brazil's elections, you have to talk about something that was born in that very country. Everyone knows the name. The São Paulo Forum.

Many mention it. Few explain exactly what it is. And so much is said about it that it is worth separating facts from propaganda.

Castro is precise about something worth stating clearly: the Forum is not a supranational government. It does not make laws for member countries. It does not govern Latin America from a secret office. But it has been a space where left-wing parties exchange strategies, build alliances, back governments, set agendas, and coordinate positions on political, economic, and social issues. And that carries weight — a lot of weight.

Over the past decades, several parties linked to the Forum reached power in different Latin American countries. This is not a fantasy or a conspiracy invented on social media. The Forum exists, holds meetings, issues declarations, and wields real political influence.

A PT defeat in Brazil — the country where the Forum was born — would not mean the Forum simply disappears. But it would carry enormous political and symbolic weight. The country where the organization was born would be changing political hands.

The Cultural Battle: Values in Dispute

This election has more than an economic dimension. It also has a cultural one — and it is important not to forget that.

The Forum has not limited itself to discussing taxes, trade, or foreign policy. Its own declarations have backed feminist agendas, sexual and reproductive rights, gender equality, and the rights of LGBTI communities. This is written in the Forum's own documents. At its 2019 meeting, it explicitly backed the LGBTI rights agenda, feminist mobilizations, and broader protection of women's sexual and reproductive rights.

Millions of people consider those policies advances in equality and individual rights. And there are also millions of citizens — especially from conservative and religious perspectives — who believe some of those agendas conflict with their understanding of family, life, the education of their children, religion, and traditional values. That disagreement exists. Denying it doesn't make it disappear.

Castro draws a fundamental distinction: those issues can and should be debated without turning those who think differently into enemies. So when analyzing the Forum's influence, there is no need to invent accusations. It is enough to review its own documents. Its supporters call that agenda "progressive" — a new name that, in Castro's view, 21st-century communism has taken on. Its conservative critics argue that several of those agendas have weakened institutions and traditional values. Castro states openly that he agrees with that reading. That is the real debate.

Brazil Also Decides Who It Does Business With

Beyond the ideological battle, this election is also decided with something far more cold-blooded: money, trade, investment, debt, businesses, minerals, oil, and markets.

Both candidates talk about fiscal adjustment, but offer different paths:

Castro frames the question from a lens of economic freedom: not which candidate promises more, but which model produces more investment, more businesses, and more sustainable employment over the short, medium, and long term. Because redistributing wealth without producing new wealth has a limit — and that limit typically shows up as debt, inflation, higher taxes, or simply slower growth.

The Geopolitical Board: The United States, China, and the BRICS

Brazil has something the United States and China both desperately want. And that makes it a first-tier geopolitical actor.

Washington is watching Brazil's critical minerals and rare earths with enormous interest because it wants to depend less on China for strategic inputs used in technology, defense, energy, and advanced manufacturing. China already has a massive relationship with Brazil and wants to keep it that way. This is not about political sympathies — it is about who accesses Brazil's resources and under what conditions.

And here is one of Brazil's greatest strengths: its size allows it to negotiate with Washington without abandoning Beijing. It can participate in the BRICS while still selling to the United States. It can negotiate with Europe while strengthening Mercosur. Not every Latin American country has that luxury.

In either scenario, when the region's largest economy changes direction, everyone else pays attention. Markets watch. Washington is alert. China pays attention. And Latin American political movements are watching too.

What Changes for Latin America if Brazil Changes Course?

Brazil is not simply choosing between two candidates. It is choosing between two profoundly different visions of society: two ways of understanding the state, the economy, security, family, relations with the United States, relations with China, and even the cultural values it wants to project across Latin America.

If the PT loses the presidency in Brazil — the country where this political movement was born — the symbolic blow would be enormous. It would demonstrate that a significant portion of Brazilian society is looking for a different direction. And that debate would inevitably travel across Latin America: a signal to parties, governments, businesses, Washington, Beijing, and millions of Latin American citizens asking which model genuinely delivers security, growth, and opportunity.

This can directly affect Colombia: regional investment, capital flows, currencies, trade, agriculture, energy, and how Washington views Latin America. That is why this election does not end in Brasília.

And here Castro declares explicitly where he stands:

Castro's closing thesis: it is not enough to talk about social justice — wealth must be produced. It is not enough to talk about rights — security must be guaranteed with authority. It is not enough to talk about inclusion — responsibility must be part of the conversation. It is not enough to talk about equality — freedom must be part of it too. And when it comes to values, there is no need to ask permission to defend them.

Family, life, faith, freedom, security, prosperity. Those are values that also deserve a voice in the future of Latin America.